Week 8 Picks

Last Week: 6-7

Indianapolis +9 against Tennessee
New Orleans -14 over St. Louis
NY Giants -10 over Miami
Minnesota +4 against Carolina
Baltimore -13 over Arizona
Jacksonville +10 against Houston
Buffalo -6 over Washington
Detroit -3 over Denver
New England -3 over Pittsburgh
Cleveland +9 against San Francisco
Seattle +1 against Cincinnati
Dallas +4 against Philadelphia
Kansas City +4 against San Diego

Kevin's Week 8 Picks

Week 7: 6-6-1

Season: 47-50-6

Ind +9

NO -14

NYG -10

Car -4

AZ +13

Hou -10

Buf -6

Det -3

Pit +3 (Pit wins)

SF -9

Sea +3 (Sea wins)

Phi -4

SD -4

Week 7 Picks

 Last Week: 6-4-2

Tampa Bay +1 against Chicago

Washington +1 against Carolina

NY Jets PK over San Diego

Cleveland -2.5 over Seattle

Houston +3 against Tennessee

Denver PK over Miami

Atlanta +3 against Houston

Oakland -3.5 against Kansas City

Arizona +4 against Pittsburgh

Dallas -13.5 over St. Louis

Green Bay -9 over Minnesota

Indianapolis +13.5 over New Orleans

Baltimore -8 over Jacksonville

Kevin's Week 7 Picks

Last week: 6-5-2

Season: 41-44-5

Cle -3

Atl +4

Hou +3 (Hou wins)

Den +2 (Den wins)

SD -3

TB +1 (TB wins)

Car -3

Oak -4

Pit -4

Stl +13

GB -9

NO -14

Bal -9

Week 6 Picks

Last Week: 7-5-1

Green Bay -15 over St. Louis
Pittsburgh -13 over Jacksonville
Philadelphia -3 over Washington
Carolina +4 against Atlanta (Panthers Win)
NY Giants -3 over Buffalo
Indianapolis +7 against Cincinnati
Baltimore -8 over Houston
Cleveland +7 against Oakland
Dallas +7 against New England
New Orleans -6 over Tampa Bay
Chicago -3 over Minnesota
NY Jets -7 over Miami

Kevin's Week 6 Picks

Last week: 5-7-1

Season: 35-39-3

Atl -4

Ind +7

Det -5

GB -16

Buf +3 (Buf wins)

Jax +13

Phi -2

Oak -7

Hou +8

NE -7

NO -4

Chi -3

NYJ -7

Week 5 Picks

Last Week: 10-6

Indianapolis -3 over Kansas City
Arizona +3 against Minnesota
Philadelphia -3 over Buffalo
Oakland +5 against Houston
Carolina +7 against New Orleans
Jacksonville +1 against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh -3.5 over Tennessee
NY Giants -10 over Seattle
San Francisco -3 over Tampa Bay
New England -8 over NY Jets
San Diego -4 over Denver
Green Bay -6 over Atlanta
Detroit -6 over Detroit

The Golden Age Of The Safety Valve

In today’s NFL, you’d think that offenses would be at a disadvantage. Not only are defensive players constantly getting bigger and faster, but the league’s great defensive minds have quickly figured out how to combat the new rules that severely limit physical contact between defenders and offensive players that gave offenses such a leg up over the last few years.

Instead, the total passing yardage accumulated in each of the first four weeks of the 2011 season has shattered previous records.

One of the reasons that offenses are putting up jaw-dropping numbers this season is that they have countered the latest defensive fad by being proactive.

As Peter King detailed in his Sports Illustrated NFL Preview story “Chaos By Design,” many teams have all but abandoned traditional 4-3 and 3-4 defensive sets. (King reports that last season the Seattle Seahawks used their base defense more than any other team and even they only utilized their basic 4-3 set 60-percent of the time). Today defensive coordinators favor formations that specialize in organized chaos and deception, which makes it extremely difficult for even the league’s elite quarterbacks to read what a defense will do on a given play.

So instead of trying to determine exactly what pressure package a QB will face, many are opting to quickly get rid of the ball to outlet receivers, usually positioned just a few yards off the line of scrimmage. These men aren’t among the biggest stars in football, but they have sure hands and the ability to pick up precious yardage after the catch.

Chief among them is Tom Brady’s favorite target with the New England Patriots, Wes Welker. Through four games, Welker has 40 catches and is on pace to shatter the single-season mark of 143 set by Marvin Harrison in 2002.

Welker has topped 100 receptions three times in his career, so it’s not a shock that he’s hauling in passes by the truckload. But this season Welker isn’t just joined by marquee receivers like Andre Johnson atop the receptions leaderboard; the list is dotted with running backs including Chicago’s Matt Forte and New Orleans’ Darren Sproles who have 26 receptions each and San Diego’s Mike Tolbert who has 25.

Welcome to the golden age of the safety valve.

In the NFL, ever a copycat league, reliable short-yardage receivers are rapidly becoming as important as the big-play guys, if not more-so.

Everyone wants a Megatron, but there are only a handful of those in the world. Finding a 5-foot-11 slot receiver with sure hands and great footwork isn’t easy either, but teams are quickly discovering their importance.

Welker is a unique specimen, but many teams are utilizing their running backs in the passing game more than ever before. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy finished 14^th on the receptions list with 78 in 2010-2011, but Forte, Sproles, Tolbert and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham are all on pace to surpass that total this season.

In today’s NFL every play features pressure on the quarterback coming from all sides, defenders dropping from their normal positions into coverage on a whim and general unpredictability. It’s why teams with banged up offensive lines like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets, two supposed Super Bowl contenders, have struggled mightily in the season’s first quarter.

Both teams have been unable to protect their quarterback even for the length of time it takes to get the ball to an outlet receiver in the flat. But for many teams, including New England, New Orleans, San Diego and Tampa Bay - all of which have winning records, getting the ball out quickly is a major key to their success.

Instead of waiting for a defense to fool them, the quarterbacks of these teams are making conscious decisions to turn quickly to their safety valves with either designed plays or quick check-downs before defenses can disrupt their plays. You won’t often see Welker outleap a defensive back in the corner of the end zone, but he already has made 29 first downs this season, nine more than the second place man, Vincent Jackson.

Welker only has one play of 40+ yards this season, but 11 of his receptions have gone for more than 20 yards. Few of Brady’s passes have travelled anywhere near 20 yards in the air to Welker, but the jitterbug is nearly unstoppable when he catches the ball in space even just a couple of yards away from the line of scrimmage.

Replicating Welker’s success is a difficult task, but plenty of other teams are finding that dumping the ball off to playmakers quickly rather than giving defenses time to throw everything but the kitchen sink at quarterbacks is the way to go

It’s all part of the endless give-and-take cycle that constantly shifts the advantage back-and-forth from offense to defense. By this time next year, defenses may have figured out how to take the outlet receiver away and offenses will have to find a way to adapt.

Kevin's Week 5 Picks

Last week: 8-8

Season: 30-32-2

Sea +10

Phi -3

Ind -3

AZ +3 (AZ wins)

Pit -3

NO -7

Jax -3

Oak +6

TB +3 (TB wins)

SD -4

NE -9

GB -6

Chi +6

Week 4 NFL Picks

Detroit +1 against Dallas

Saints -7 over Jacksonville

San Francisco +9 against Philadelphia

Washington -2.5 over St. Louis

Tennessee “Pick’em” over Cleveland

Buffalo -3 over Cincinnati

Kansas City +2.5 against Minnesota

Chicago -6.5 over Carolina

Pittsburgh +3.5 against Houston

Atlanta -4.5 over Seattle

Arizona +1 against NY Giants

San Diego -7 over Miami

Green Bay -12.5 over Denver

New England -5 over Oakland

NY Jets +4 against Baltimore

Indianapolis +10.5 against Tampa Bay