NBA Playoffs Preview: Eastern Conference

 

1^st Round:

(1)   Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

(2)   Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

(3)   Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

(4)   Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Chicago Bulls:

The Bulls are likely to become “America’s Team” in the next couple weeks as they are the ones who pose the biggest threat to derail the “Heatles” (Miami Heat) from making a run to the NBA Finals.  The Bulls clinched the number one seed in the Eastern Conference through the inspired play of MVP Candidate Derrick Rose and a stifling Defensive Scheme from Coach Tom Thibideau.  The Bulls have a flawless front court with different players that complement each other well.  Carlos Boozer scores in the low block while Joakim Noah protects the rim defensively.  Both are very capable rebounders as well.  Luol Deng has been an unsung hero this year by doing a little bit of everything (scoring, rebounding, and defense).  Off the bench the Bulls can go to the young and energetic Taj Gibson, grizzled veteran Kurt Thomas and rookie Omer Asik.  The Bulls backcourt begins and ends with Derrick Rose.  Rose is essentially unguardable now that he has an improved jump shot to go with his ability to get into the paint anytime he pleases.  The shooting guard position is the team’s “Achilles Heel.”  Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, and Keith Bogans each see minutes at this position but they all would be backups on other teams.  People on ESPN (cough couch Colin Cowherd) compare this Bulls team to recent Cleveland Cavaliers teams (with LeBron) because they are led by a volume scorer that simply have overachieved due to a solid defensive coach.  Cowherd even went as far to say that Deng, Noah and Boozer compare to last year’s Cavs team (Mo Williams, Anderson Varejao, Antawn Jamison).  While I don’t agree with Cowherd, I do wonder if the Bulls do not win the Eastern Conference, will it be due to a lack of a starting caliber shooting guard?

Miami Heat:

In this “Post Decision” NBA World, teams are following Miami’s example of adding multiple superstars.  The Heat are simply LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and not much else (although they did make a nice late year deal by signing Mike Bibby).  The one thing that ails this Heat team is late game situations when either Wade or James goes one-on-one against their opponents while their teammates stand in the corner.  Another problem is the season long disappearance of Mike Miller and the injury to Udonis Haslem.  With these two flaws, will the Heat have enough to win a Championship due to having two of the top five players in the league (Wade and James)?

Boston Celtics:

Scheme wise, the trade of Kenderick Perkins should not have hurt that much.  Perkins was out when the Celtics were playing their best basketball early in the season (even though they had an old Shaquille O’Neal who is now even more immobile due to recent injuries).  However one can never tell how trades and transactions will affect a team’s mood and chemistry.  Since the Perkins trade, Boston has struggled to find its groove due to star Rajon Rondo sulking due to the trade of his best friend.  Even other Celtics were disheartened by the trade of “Big Perk (see ESPN’s Series “The Association” for further evidence).  Many pundits and fans are starting to count the Celtics out, but I won’t due to the leadership of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen who can probably sense that this is their last run at title.  For Boston to get back to the Finals, they need Shaq, whatever’s left of Jermaine O’Neal and Glen Davis to try and replace Perkins’s toughness and defensive presence.

Orlando Magic:

This Magic team is different than previous versions that have had success in the playoffs.  Dwight Howard still controls the paint both offensively and defensively by himself for the Magic.  Orlando made two big mid-season trades that landed them Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, and Hedo Turkoglu.  The Magic have essentially “F’d” themselves up for when Dwight Howard becomes a free agent by adding the long-term contracts of Turkoglu and Arenas.  If I were the Magic’s General Manager, I would have made the trade with Phoenix (netted Orlando both Richardson and Turkoglu) while not making the dumb trade for Arenas.  The Magic would have had a much more balanced roster (which would have had the depth of the Denver Nuggets with a bona-fide superstar) with Howard, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, Rashard Lewis, Turkoglu, Richardson, Quentin Richardson, J.J. Redick, and Jameer Nelson.  However even this roster wouldn’t be good enough to reach the Finals but it would have made the Magic much more interesting.  One can only dream.

Atlanta Hawks:

They have played horribly as of late and it is a farce to why this team is seeded so high.  They have always been a better collection of players rather than an actual team. Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Joe Johnson are each star players but their talents don’t complement each other well.  I thought the mid-season acquisition of Kirk Hinrich would have helped them but they have gotten worse.  Look for a quick exit for the Hawks against Orlando.

New York Knicks:

“I'm Coming Home, I’m Coming Home, Tell the World I’m Coming Home” as MSG runs another promo proclaiming Carmelo Anthony is a Knick.  Essentially the Knicks are a lesser version of the Miami Heat built around three stars (Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Chauncey Billups) but unlike the Heat they don’t play defense.  The Knicks will probably win one game against Boston in front of a playoff starved crowd at Madison Square Garden but that will be it.  They simply do not have ANY playoff quality defenders to make a deep run this year.  The future is bright for the Knicks, but delusional fans need to get a grip and realize they have no chance at beating the Celtics in this series.  The offensive wizardry of Anthony and Stoudemire will keep the games close for a while but look for the Celtics to get the key defensive stops in late game situations to propel them to an easy series victory.

Philadelphia 76ers:

The 76ers remind me so much of last season’s Charlotte Bobcats.  Philadelphia has overachieved this year under the guidance of a veteran coach (Doug Collins) and feature’s a plethora of young athletic players such as Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holliday, Thaddeus Young and a renaissance season from Elton Brand.  The Sixers would actually matchup pretty well against other playoff contenders but have got a poor matchup against the Miami Heat.  The Heat will simply out-athlete Philadelphia with James, Wade, and Bosh.  Look for the Sixers to lose the first two games by double figures and then two close games at the Wells Fargo Center.

Indiana Pacers: 

Do they even deserve to be in the playoffs.  No, but actually they will give the Bulls a tough five game series.  Indiana matches up favorably against the Bulls because they have a hardworking frontline led by Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough and Roy Hibbert.  Much like last season’s eighth seed (the Bulls) the Pacers will steal a game against Chicago at Conseco Fieldhouse but will end up falling short in following the footsteps of the 2007 Golden State Warriors as an eighth seed who knocks off a number one seed.

Bracket Breakdown:

Look for the Bulls, Heat, Celtics and Magic to each win their first round series’ in five games or less.  In the second round, look for Orlando to give matchup problems for Chicago with their three-point shooting and the presence of Dwight Howard.  The Magic narrowly lost to the Bulls last week without Howard.  I do see the Bulls outlasting the Magic in six though.  Boston and Miami should go seven games.  The trade of Perkins evens out the two teams now that Boston doesn’t have a resounding advantage in the front court anymore against the Heat.  I believe the series will come down to home court advantage which the Heat have.  I’m taking the Heat to win a classic seven game series.  In the Eastern Conference Finals, I really want to take the Bulls because they exemplify how my ideal NBA team would be built.  But I think the Chicago’s lack of a shooting guard and the playoff inexperience of Rose and Noah (they haven’t won a first round series) will ultimately doom them. Remember Chicagoans, it took Michael Jordan seven seasons to reach the NBA Finals.  It is only Rose’s third season and he will eventually win one if not two titles.  Not this year though, “America’s Most Scrutinized Team (Miami Heat)" will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals after defeating the Bulls in six games.

The Watchability Scale

For all sports fans there is a certain game hierarchy that determines whether we’ll watch, how closely we’ll watch, and who we’ll watch with. Some of us can’t stand missing the pregame show to an NBA Summer League game on NBA TV in the middle of July. Some of us won’t tune in unless our significant others sit us down on the couch and threaten to leave us unless we pay attention to the big game. But for most fans, most games fall somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. For many Americans, the Super Bowl is must watch TV and the World Series of Poker is nothing but idle noise. I’m here to break down the 13 tiers of sporting events, from those that sports fans will completely avoid, to those that they’d skip their sibling’s wedding for. This is my take on where sporting events fall on the watchability scale.

13. WNBA: There’s no way you’re watching this unless you fell asleep on the couch and the cat stepped on the remote.

12. The Tour de France: I don’t know a soul on the planet who actually watches the Tour de France live. Hell, I don’t know more than a couple people who could even name more than one rider other than Lance Armstrong. My dad used to watch the Tour a little, but only before Lance was revealed as a probable cheater. And even then, my dad was riding a stationary bike for exercise, so I refuse to belief he was watching for any reason other than motivation.

11. MLB Spring Training: Most Americans pay more attention to how their neighbor’s kid is doing in Little League than spring training games in early March. But for some diehards, the battle for the 25th spot on a major league roster is a matter of life and death.

10. A Random Regular Season Game: You haven’t hung out with your buddies in a while, so what better excuse to request some quality bonding time together than “you wanna come over tonight to watch the (whatever) game? None of your friends care who wins, and as the game wears on you realize you have no idea what the score is or who is doing well. But the game is providing some solid background noise and filler for lulls in the conversation.

9. Event Games That No One Cares About: No one cares about the MLB All-Star Game. This is a well known fact, but it doesn’t stop sports fans from gathering around the TV every July. Artificial events like the All-Star Game may be meaningless to sports fans, but they’re just the type of games that fans, especially baseball fans, are obligated to watch.

8. Your Team’s Regular Season Games: People handle these differently. Some take them very seriously and can’t be in the company of other human beings when their favorite team is on the tube. Others see these games as the perfect opportunity to spend some quality time with friends or significant others and watch something near and dear to the heart. Unlike Random Regular Season Games, there is much more focus on the action. If you’re with friends, conversation won’t revolve around how hot that girl at the bar was; it’s more likely to be about how Eli Manning needs to know the right read when a safety creeps in from the strong side.

7. July 4th Hot Dog Eating Contest: Some folks don’t appreciate one of America’s greatest traditions, but it is one of our country’s most patriotic events on our most patriotic day.

6. Big News Games: Think Strasburg’s first start. If you care about sports, you will be watching when the new “Big Three” take the floor for the first time as members of the Miami Heat. If you don’t watch that game, you’ll most definitely make sure you catch Sportscenter. Same goes for LeBron’s return to Cleveland.

5. NBA or NHL Finals: Both are niche sports. In a year when two legendary rivals like the Celtics and Lakers play for the title, the Finals vault up the scale. But otherwise, despite the championship ramifications, it’s pretty unlikely that anyone beside actual NBA or NHL fans will watch the Finals or even really talk about them.

4. International Competition: The World Cup and Olympics are unique, because for nine out of 12 months in a competition year, no one gives the athletes who will compete a second thought. But when competition begins, the world watches, regardless of how identifiable the competitors are. Still, it’s bizarre that we don’t pay any attention to these guys and gals 90 percent of the team but are required to know at least a little bit about the event when it takes place. If you intend to approach your company’s water cooler or meet strangers at a barbeque during the Olympics or World Cup, you’d better know something about what’s going on.

3. March Madness: It’s impossible to watch the entirety of this tournament. But no matter your age or sex, you’re sure to encounter at least a couple games during this marathon event. I fail to understand why everyone in the country, sports fan or not, doesn’t fill out a bracket. If that’s not enough to pique your interest in the games just a little, then I don’t know what is.

2. The Super Bowl: More people in the USA watch the Super Bowl annually than any other sporting event. Whether you care about football, or just want to see the newest Budweiser commercial, you are most likely planted in front of the TV for three hours on the first weekend in February. If your team is playing in the Super Bowl, it immediately moves to No.1.

1. An International Game Involving Your Country’s Team: There’s really no excuse for missing a USA World Cup game, especially deep in the tournament, or a USA/Canada Olympic hockey game. Whether you give a darn about the actual sport or not, there’s a requisite level of patriotism involved that make it imperative that you not only watch the game, but you watch the game with some close friends and family and have at least a couple interesting factoids to contribute to the conversation. If you plan on going to work the next day without watching this game, don’t expect a whole lot of people to talk to you.

Carmelo Anthony and the Denver Nuggets Headed Towards Divorce

Ric Bucher of ESPN is reporting that Carmelo Anthony has no intention of signing a contract extension and wants to leave the Denver Nuggets.  None of this is surprising due to Denver’s disappointing first round playoff loss to the Utah Jazz.  Anthony looks at the Nuggets roster and sees a team in decline.  Chauncey Billups is 34-years-old and is on the decline and the only young assets the team has are the mercurial J.R. Smith and rookie Ty Lawson.  Carmelo also knows that with Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh uniting in South Beach to play for the Miami Heat, he has to ally with other superstars to have a shot at a championship.  Anthony is the second star (joining Chris Paul) to show unhappiness with his current team after the “Decision.”  It would not be shocking to see more stars like Deron Williams try to find different teams as they search for a championship. 

Using ESPN Trade Machine, I have constructed a few possible trades that the Nuggets could pursue.

Atlanta Hawks receive Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith

Denver Nuggets: receive Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford

Why this deal could work:

Atlanta instantly becomes a contender in the Eastern Conference with Carmelo, Joe Johnson and Al Horford.  Denver adds Josh Smith, who performs at a near All-Star level, and Jamal Crawford’s expiring contract.  Crawford is better than Smith.

Charlotte Bobcats receive Carmelo Anthony

Denver Nuggets receive Gerald Wallace and DeSagana Diop or Nazr Mohammed

Why this deal could work:

Bobcats’ owner Michael Jordan acquires a Jordan Brand pitchman in what would be a one year rental.  Anthony would make the team nationally relevant for the first time ever, even it’s for just one year.  The Bobcats would definitely lose Anthony to free agency in the summer of 2011.  The only way Charlotte does this deal is if they can include their most toxic contract (DeSagana Diop).  But the Nuggets would more than likely insist on Mohammed who has an expiring contract.  Denver would add Wallace who could slide in at Carmelo’s former position of small forward.

Dallas Mavericks receive Carmelo Anthony and Chris Anderson

Denver Nuggets receive Tyson Chandler and Caron Butler

Why this deal could work:

Nuggets get a much-needed salary dump by including Anderson’s long-term contract.  They also acquire two expiring contracts in Chandler and Butler.  Dallas strengthens its position as a title contender.  Note: this deal would not be able to happen until September 13 due to Chandler’s trade restriction which lasts until then.

Orlando Magic acquire Carmelo Anthony

Denver Nuggets receive Vince Carter

Why this deal could work:

Nuggets save face by adding a marketable player in Carter.  Anthony joins Olympic teammate Dwight Howard (and Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson) to form a quartet that is better on paper than the Heat’s Big Three.

New Jersey Nets receive Carmelo Anthony

Denver Nuggets receive Devin Harris, Terrence Williams and Derrick Favors

Why this deal could work:

Nuggets add a potential franchise player in Favors and a nice young talent in Williams.  They would have to take on Harris to make the salaries match, which would create problems with Billups and Lawson in place, but the reward would be well worth it.  Anthony becomes the centerpiece for the Nets move to Brooklyn (assuming they can re-sign him).

Who can’t make a deal:

Chicago Bulls: 

The only way the Bulls can add Carmelo is if they can include Luol Deng (who has arguably the worst contract in the NBA) in the deal.  There’s no way that Denver would take on Deng even though they know that Carmelo will leave in 2011.

Leader in the Clubhouse:

New York Knicks receive Carmelo Anthony

Denver Nuggets receive Eddy Curry, Danilo Gallinari and Anthony Randolph (or Wilson Chandler)

It’s obvious why the Knicks would want Carmelo.  However, they already know that they are the favorites sign Anthony next summer, so why would they trade away their assets when they can sign Anthony for nothing but cash a year from now?  Instead the Knicks should continue to try to acquire Chris Paul so they can form their version of the “Big Three.” Denver would acquire Eddy Curry’s expiring contract and two young talents in Gallinari and Randolph (or Chandler). Many believe that the Knicks will eventually land Anthony.  The question is, will they part with their assets in order to acquire ‘Melo a year early?