Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Fantasy Focus: Sell High On Grady Sizemore

Grady Sizemore owners have to be quite pleased with the early return from the 28-year-old centerfielder of the Cleveland Indians.

Just under a year removed from microfracture surgery on his knee, Sizemore has posted a .406 average with three home runs and seven RBIs in just eight games this season.

No one knew if he’d ever be the same player after undergoing the intense procedure, but Sizemore has quickly begun to erase everyone’s doubts.

That means this is the perfect time to sell high on the Indians’ leadoff man.

It is possible that Sizemore will continue on like nothing ever happened, but it’s pretty unlikely. For a player so reliant on his legs, any kind of serious surgery is a major red flag.

Sizemore hasn’t stolen a base yet this season, and was in fact caught in his lone attempt of the year last night. The Indians have repeatedly stated that they’ll be very careful with Grady, and it stands to reason that means he won’t exactly be given the green light on the basepaths.

At his best, Sizemore was one of the best 30-30 threats in baseball. But if he’s not going to be stealing bases, his fantasy value plummets back down to earth. Sizemore has only actually eclipsed the 30-homer mark once in his career, and his true potential is probably closer to 25 dingers.

His season batting average has never been higher than .290, and he hasn’t hit higher than .277 since 2006. The early .406 mark is impressive for sure, but it is not indicative of his past performances.

And don’t forget that when healthy, Sizemore has been among the major league leaders in strikeouts.

There’s a remote chance that Sizemore’s injury will be a non-factor going forward and that he’s the franchise player the Indians were once building around, but don’t bet on it. Better to see if any of Sizemore’s old owners in your league are thrilled with his start and nostalgic for days gone by. You may be able to squeeze a surprising trade return for him, but you’d better act fast. His terrific start won’t last forever.

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