Kevin's Wild Card Weekend Picks

Last week: 11-4-1
Season: 111-120-12

Cin +4 (Cin wins)
NO -11
NYG -3
Pit -9

Kevin's Week 17 Picks

Last week: 5-10-1
Season: 100-116-11

GB +4
SF -11
NYJ +1 (NYJ win)
Min PK
NE -12
NO -9
Phi -9
Jax -4
Hou +3 (Hou wins)
Atl -12
Bal -3
Pit PK
Den -4
SD +3 (SD wins)
AZ -3
NYG -3

Kevin's Week 16 Picks

Last week:4-11-1 (OOF)
Season: 95-106-10

Hou -6
Den -3
Cin -4
Jax +8
KC -2
NE -10
NYJ -3
Stl +17
Min +7
TB +8
Bal -13
SD +3 (SD wins)
Dal -3
SF -2
GB -13
NO -7

Kevin's Week 15 Picks

Last week: 9-7
Season: 91-95-9

Atl -12
Dal -7
NYG -7
Buf +2 (Buf wins)
Chi -4
Ten -7
GB -15
Cin -7
NO -7
Hou -7
Det -2
NE -7
NYJ +3 (NYJ win)
Ari -7
Bal -1
Pit +3 (Pit wins)

Kevin's Week 14 Picks

Last week: 9-7

Season: 82-88-9

Cle +15

NYG +3 (NYG win)

Hou +3 (Hou wins)

Det -7

NO -4

Mia -3

NYJ -9

NE -9

Atl -3

Jax -1

Bal -17

Den -4

SF -4

GB -12

SD -7

STL PK

Kevin's Week 13 Picks

Last week: 8-6-2

Season: 73-81-9

Sea +3

GB -7

Ten +2 (Ten wins)

Chi -7

Oak +3 (Oak wins)

Den +1 (Den wins)

NE -21 TWENTY ONE POINT LINE!!!?

Pit -7

TB -3

NYJ -3

Atl -3

Bal -7

Dal -5

SF +14

NO -9

SD -3

Kevin's Week 12 Picks

Last week: 4-9-1

Season: 65-75-7

GB -7

Dal -7

Bal -3

Atl -10

Cle +8

TB +4 (TB wins)

Car -4

Stl PK

Buf +8

Hou -4

Chi +5 (Chi wins)

Sea -4

NE -3

SD -6

Pit -11

NO -7

Kevin's Week 11 Picks

Last week: 8-8

Season: 61-66-6

NYJ -7
NYG -5

Jax -1

Det -7

GB -14

Buf +1 (Buf wins)

Oak -1

Dal -8

Bal -7

Stl -2

AZ +10

Atl -7

Chi -4

NE -15

Kevin's Week 10 Picks

Last week: 6-8

Season: 53-58-6

SD -7

SF -3

NO -1

Pit -3

Stl +3 (Stl wins)

Dal -6

Ind +3 (Ind wins)

KC -4

Wash +4 (Wash wins)

Phi PK

Hou -3

Car -4

Bal -7

Det +3 (Det wins)

NE +1 (NE wins)

GB -14

Kevin's Week 9 Picks

Last week: 6-5-1

Season: 53-55-7

Buf -2

Dal -12

Atl -8

KC -5

NO -9

SF -4

Hou -11

Cin +3 (Cin wins)

Oak -9

NE -9

Stl +3 (Stl wins)

GB -6

Pit -4

Phi -8

Kevin's Week 8 Picks

Week 7: 6-6-1

Season: 47-50-6

Ind +9

NO -14

NYG -10

Car -4

AZ +13

Hou -10

Buf -6

Det -3

Pit +3 (Pit wins)

SF -9

Sea +3 (Sea wins)

Phi -4

SD -4

Kevin's Week 7 Picks

Last week: 6-5-2

Season: 41-44-5

Cle -3

Atl +4

Hou +3 (Hou wins)

Den +2 (Den wins)

SD -3

TB +1 (TB wins)

Car -3

Oak -4

Pit -4

Stl +13

GB -9

NO -14

Bal -9

Kevin's Week 6 Picks

Last week: 5-7-1

Season: 35-39-3

Atl -4

Ind +7

Det -5

GB -16

Buf +3 (Buf wins)

Jax +13

Phi -2

Oak -7

Hou +8

NE -7

NO -4

Chi -3

NYJ -7

The Golden Age Of The Safety Valve

In today’s NFL, you’d think that offenses would be at a disadvantage. Not only are defensive players constantly getting bigger and faster, but the league’s great defensive minds have quickly figured out how to combat the new rules that severely limit physical contact between defenders and offensive players that gave offenses such a leg up over the last few years.

Instead, the total passing yardage accumulated in each of the first four weeks of the 2011 season has shattered previous records.

One of the reasons that offenses are putting up jaw-dropping numbers this season is that they have countered the latest defensive fad by being proactive.

As Peter King detailed in his Sports Illustrated NFL Preview story “Chaos By Design,” many teams have all but abandoned traditional 4-3 and 3-4 defensive sets. (King reports that last season the Seattle Seahawks used their base defense more than any other team and even they only utilized their basic 4-3 set 60-percent of the time). Today defensive coordinators favor formations that specialize in organized chaos and deception, which makes it extremely difficult for even the league’s elite quarterbacks to read what a defense will do on a given play.

So instead of trying to determine exactly what pressure package a QB will face, many are opting to quickly get rid of the ball to outlet receivers, usually positioned just a few yards off the line of scrimmage. These men aren’t among the biggest stars in football, but they have sure hands and the ability to pick up precious yardage after the catch.

Chief among them is Tom Brady’s favorite target with the New England Patriots, Wes Welker. Through four games, Welker has 40 catches and is on pace to shatter the single-season mark of 143 set by Marvin Harrison in 2002.

Welker has topped 100 receptions three times in his career, so it’s not a shock that he’s hauling in passes by the truckload. But this season Welker isn’t just joined by marquee receivers like Andre Johnson atop the receptions leaderboard; the list is dotted with running backs including Chicago’s Matt Forte and New Orleans’ Darren Sproles who have 26 receptions each and San Diego’s Mike Tolbert who has 25.

Welcome to the golden age of the safety valve.

In the NFL, ever a copycat league, reliable short-yardage receivers are rapidly becoming as important as the big-play guys, if not more-so.

Everyone wants a Megatron, but there are only a handful of those in the world. Finding a 5-foot-11 slot receiver with sure hands and great footwork isn’t easy either, but teams are quickly discovering their importance.

Welker is a unique specimen, but many teams are utilizing their running backs in the passing game more than ever before. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy finished 14^th on the receptions list with 78 in 2010-2011, but Forte, Sproles, Tolbert and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham are all on pace to surpass that total this season.

In today’s NFL every play features pressure on the quarterback coming from all sides, defenders dropping from their normal positions into coverage on a whim and general unpredictability. It’s why teams with banged up offensive lines like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets, two supposed Super Bowl contenders, have struggled mightily in the season’s first quarter.

Both teams have been unable to protect their quarterback even for the length of time it takes to get the ball to an outlet receiver in the flat. But for many teams, including New England, New Orleans, San Diego and Tampa Bay - all of which have winning records, getting the ball out quickly is a major key to their success.

Instead of waiting for a defense to fool them, the quarterbacks of these teams are making conscious decisions to turn quickly to their safety valves with either designed plays or quick check-downs before defenses can disrupt their plays. You won’t often see Welker outleap a defensive back in the corner of the end zone, but he already has made 29 first downs this season, nine more than the second place man, Vincent Jackson.

Welker only has one play of 40+ yards this season, but 11 of his receptions have gone for more than 20 yards. Few of Brady’s passes have travelled anywhere near 20 yards in the air to Welker, but the jitterbug is nearly unstoppable when he catches the ball in space even just a couple of yards away from the line of scrimmage.

Replicating Welker’s success is a difficult task, but plenty of other teams are finding that dumping the ball off to playmakers quickly rather than giving defenses time to throw everything but the kitchen sink at quarterbacks is the way to go

It’s all part of the endless give-and-take cycle that constantly shifts the advantage back-and-forth from offense to defense. By this time next year, defenses may have figured out how to take the outlet receiver away and offenses will have to find a way to adapt.

Kevin's Week 5 Picks

Last week: 8-8

Season: 30-32-2

Sea +10

Phi -3

Ind -3

AZ +3 (AZ wins)

Pit -3

NO -7

Jax -3

Oak +6

TB +3 (TB wins)

SD -4

NE -9

GB -6

Chi +6

Kevin's Week 4 Picks

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 22-24-2

Chi -7

Buf -3

Cle -1

Det +1 (Det wins)

KC +2 (KC wins)

Wash PK

Phi PK

NO -8

Pit +4 (Pit wins)

NYG -1

Atl -6

GB -13

NE -5

Mia +9

Bal -4

TB -10

Kevin's Week 3 Picks

Last week: 9-6-1

Season: 15-15-2

Phi PK

NE -9

Cin -3

Mia +3 (Mia wins)

Den +7

Det -4

NO -4

Car -4

NYJ -4

Bal -4

SD -15

GB -4

Ari -4

Atl +1 (Atl wins)

Pit -11

Dal PK

Kevin's Week 2 Picks

Last Week: 6-9-1

Buf -4

KC +9

Bal -7

Cle -3

TB +3 (TB wins)

NO -7

NYJ -9

Sea +15

AZ +4 (AZ wins)

GB -10

Dal -3

Den -4

Hou -3

NE -7

Atl +3 (Atl wins)

NYG -5

Kevin's 2011 NFL Predictions

AFC East

New England Patriots 12-4

New York Jets 10-6*

Buffalo Bills 6-10

Miami Dolphins 4-12

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5

Baltimore Ravens 11-5*

Cleveland Browns 7-9

Cincinnati Bengals 3-13

AFC South

Houston Texans 10-6

Indianapolis Colts 8-8

Tennessee Titans 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10

AFC West

San Diego Chargers 11-5

Kansas City Chiefs 9-7

Oakland Raiders 7-9

Denver Broncos 6-10

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5

Dallas Cowboys 10-6 *

New York Giants 7-9

Washington Redskins 4-13

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 12-4

Chicago Bears 9-7

Detroit Lions 8-8

Minnesota Vikings 7-9

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 12-4

Atlanta Falcons 11-5*

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

Carolina Panthers 4-12

NFC West

St. Louis Rams 9-7

Arizona Cardinals 8-8

San Francisco 49ers 6-10

Seattle Seahawks 5-11

Wild Card Round

Steelers over Jets

Ravens over Texans

Eagles over Cowboys

Falcons over Rams

Divisional Round

Patriots over Ravens

Steelers over Chargers

Falcons over Packers

Saints over Eagles

Conference Championships

Patriots over Steelers

Falcons over Saints

Super Bowl

Falcons 31, Patriots 30

Awards

MVP - Drew Brees

Offensive Player of the Year - Drew Brees

Defensive Player of the Year - DeMarcus Ware

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Julio Jones

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Von Miller

Coach of the Year - Jason Garrett

Comeback Player of the Year - Matt Stafford

Kevin's Week 1 Picks

Last season: 125-118-4

NO +4.5

NYG -3

ATL -3

CLE -7

BUF +6

STL +5.5

TB -1

TEN +3 (TEN wins)

PIT +2 (PIT wins)

HOU -9

CAR +7
SD -9

SF -6

NYJ -4

NE -7

OAK +3 (OAK wins)