The Golden Age Of The Safety Valve

In today’s NFL, you’d think that offenses would be at a disadvantage. Not only are defensive players constantly getting bigger and faster, but the league’s great defensive minds have quickly figured out how to combat the new rules that severely limit physical contact between defenders and offensive players that gave offenses such a leg up over the last few years.

Instead, the total passing yardage accumulated in each of the first four weeks of the 2011 season has shattered previous records.

One of the reasons that offenses are putting up jaw-dropping numbers this season is that they have countered the latest defensive fad by being proactive.

As Peter King detailed in his Sports Illustrated NFL Preview story “Chaos By Design,” many teams have all but abandoned traditional 4-3 and 3-4 defensive sets. (King reports that last season the Seattle Seahawks used their base defense more than any other team and even they only utilized their basic 4-3 set 60-percent of the time). Today defensive coordinators favor formations that specialize in organized chaos and deception, which makes it extremely difficult for even the league’s elite quarterbacks to read what a defense will do on a given play.

So instead of trying to determine exactly what pressure package a QB will face, many are opting to quickly get rid of the ball to outlet receivers, usually positioned just a few yards off the line of scrimmage. These men aren’t among the biggest stars in football, but they have sure hands and the ability to pick up precious yardage after the catch.

Chief among them is Tom Brady’s favorite target with the New England Patriots, Wes Welker. Through four games, Welker has 40 catches and is on pace to shatter the single-season mark of 143 set by Marvin Harrison in 2002.

Welker has topped 100 receptions three times in his career, so it’s not a shock that he’s hauling in passes by the truckload. But this season Welker isn’t just joined by marquee receivers like Andre Johnson atop the receptions leaderboard; the list is dotted with running backs including Chicago’s Matt Forte and New Orleans’ Darren Sproles who have 26 receptions each and San Diego’s Mike Tolbert who has 25.

Welcome to the golden age of the safety valve.

In the NFL, ever a copycat league, reliable short-yardage receivers are rapidly becoming as important as the big-play guys, if not more-so.

Everyone wants a Megatron, but there are only a handful of those in the world. Finding a 5-foot-11 slot receiver with sure hands and great footwork isn’t easy either, but teams are quickly discovering their importance.

Welker is a unique specimen, but many teams are utilizing their running backs in the passing game more than ever before. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy finished 14^th on the receptions list with 78 in 2010-2011, but Forte, Sproles, Tolbert and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham are all on pace to surpass that total this season.

In today’s NFL every play features pressure on the quarterback coming from all sides, defenders dropping from their normal positions into coverage on a whim and general unpredictability. It’s why teams with banged up offensive lines like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets, two supposed Super Bowl contenders, have struggled mightily in the season’s first quarter.

Both teams have been unable to protect their quarterback even for the length of time it takes to get the ball to an outlet receiver in the flat. But for many teams, including New England, New Orleans, San Diego and Tampa Bay - all of which have winning records, getting the ball out quickly is a major key to their success.

Instead of waiting for a defense to fool them, the quarterbacks of these teams are making conscious decisions to turn quickly to their safety valves with either designed plays or quick check-downs before defenses can disrupt their plays. You won’t often see Welker outleap a defensive back in the corner of the end zone, but he already has made 29 first downs this season, nine more than the second place man, Vincent Jackson.

Welker only has one play of 40+ yards this season, but 11 of his receptions have gone for more than 20 yards. Few of Brady’s passes have travelled anywhere near 20 yards in the air to Welker, but the jitterbug is nearly unstoppable when he catches the ball in space even just a couple of yards away from the line of scrimmage.

Replicating Welker’s success is a difficult task, but plenty of other teams are finding that dumping the ball off to playmakers quickly rather than giving defenses time to throw everything but the kitchen sink at quarterbacks is the way to go

It’s all part of the endless give-and-take cycle that constantly shifts the advantage back-and-forth from offense to defense. By this time next year, defenses may have figured out how to take the outlet receiver away and offenses will have to find a way to adapt.

Lessons From Week Two

Green Bay 34 Buffalo 7: With six sacks in two games, Clay Matthews has emerged as an early Defensive MVP candidate, the second in two years for the Packers. Buffalo’s offense is completely inept and the Bills were totally overmatched.

Miami 14 Minnesota 10: Maybe Brett Favre should have stayed retired. Sure he’s missing his favorite target, Sidney Rice, but everything about Favre looks old right now. The 0-2 Vikings are in serious trouble. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have become one of the early-season’s most intriguing teams. With a deep running attack, improving quarterback, and surprisingly solid defense, Miami may make the AFC East a three-team race.

Kansas City 16 Cleveland 14: It wasn’t as exciting as their win against the Chargers, but the 2-0 Chiefs got the job done. The big-play capability of the Chiefs is the team’s biggest weapon, and a primary reason gamblers should avoid KC; it’s just impossible to tell when a kick return, pick-six, or dump pass could change the momentum of a game. The Browns really struggled to move the ball on the ground, but with Seneca Wallace at QB, Cleveland’s options were limited.

Chicago 27 Dallas 20: The 0-2 Cowboys have benefitted from equally rocky starts by the NFC East’s other teams. Still, Dallas has all kinds of problems. Tony Romo has been erratic at best, the team can’t run the ball, and its attitude just seems to be missing. This was a huge win for the 2-0 Bears who seem to have regained their swagger on defense and are quietly becoming decent offensively as well.

Atlanta 41 Arizona 7: Atlanta produced only nine points in Week One, but that was against the vaunted Steelers defense. The 41 point outburst against Arizona was more in line with what I expected out of the Falcons this year. Even without Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, the Falcons pounded the Cardinals. Arizona is in for a very long year, just too many huge losses on both sides of the ball.

Tampa Bay 20 Carolina 7: The efficient Matt Moore from 2009’s final weeks has disappeared. Carolina just seems lost offensively, and Coach John Fox has already announced that rookie Jimmy Clausen will start in Week Three. The Bucs have shown some feistiness in getting to 2-0. They’ve got an interesting group of young receivers and have showcased good young talent in the defensive front seven. They’ll come crashing down to earth for sure, but the Bucs have already met the expectations of many for this season.

Philadelphia 35 Detroit 32: Michael Vick may yet become an effective NFL quarterback. In what was arguably his best game as a pro, Vick showed incredible balance and evasiveness in the pocket while still making accurate throws and good decisions. I can’t remember a time when Vick looked less like a running back than yesterday. He has baggage obviously, but Vick looks poised to be a starter somewhere in 2011. Detroit actually played well without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. Rookie Jahvid Best has been electric thus far, and the team has shown plenty of flashes on both sides of the ball. They are still doomed to a losing season, but the Lions are creeping toward respectability.

Cincinnati 15 Baltimore 10: The Bengals defense has arrived. I expected Baltimore to really break-through offensively this season, but with 20 points through two games I have concerns. Still, against the Jets and Bengals maybe 10 points is all that can be expected. Cincinnati continues to have problems scoring points because Carson Palmer is a shell of himself. But the D is now one of the league’s best.

Pittsburgh 19 Tennessee 11: The Steel Curtain is back. The Steelers have been just dominant on defense through two games and Ben Roethlisberger or not, the Steelers are playoff bound. A healthy Troy Polamalu is just as important as Big Ben and the Steelers showed it doesn’t matter who is under center when their D is healthy. Pittsburgh made the great Chris Johnson look mortal. The Titans play strong D and can run the ball, but once again questions at quarterback are becoming problematic.

Denver 31 Seattle 14: Seattle got smacked a week after shocking the 49ers. Most people thought the Seahawks would really struggle this year, and their Week Two result was much more in line with expectations. The Broncos got a very good game from Kyle Orton and should hover around .500 this year.

Oakland 16 St. Louis 14: Two of the league’s doormats engaged in a typically boring struggle. The Raiders got a second dynamic performance in a row from Darren McFadden. His health and production are crucial to the Raiders’ success. This year is obviously all about Sam Bradford for the Rams. His development is the only story Rams fans should care about. Expectations should remain low though as Bradford has no weapons to speak of.

Houston 30 Washington 27: The Texans are extremely resilient. Two comeback wins in the season’s first two weeks against two good teams have proven that the Texans have arrived. They have arguably the league’s best receiver, one of its best quarterbacks, and an impressive young running back on top of and up and coming defense. Houston also certainly seems to have some arrogance now and the “it” factor. Washington really got screwed out of a win that would have put them in the NFC East driver’s seat. The ‘Skins are a different team with Donovan McNabb at QB and a competent coaching staff. They will be in it till the end this season.

New York 28 New England 14: The Jets made a huge statement by crushing the Patriots in the second half. Even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets are a superior defense. They also have to be thrilled with LaDanian Tomlinson and Mark Sanchez. This was the team Rex Ryan spent the whole summer bragging about. Conversely, the Pats defense looked atrocious. Without a running game, New England is extremely one-dimensional. Most weeks they’ll be able to score enough points to win through the passing game alone, but against true contenders like the Jets, the Pats will be exposed.

San Diego 38 Jacksonville 13: The Chargers showed that even without Ryan Matthews, Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil, they can be a force offensively. Their shocking Week One loss to Kansas City is now in the rearview mirror, and the Chargers should have no problem cruising to a division title. The Jaguars are simply a very mediocre team made worse by very poor quarterback play. Those pining for Tim Tebow last April probably aren’t very happy right now.

Indianapolis 38 New York 14: And it wasn’t that close. The Colts are a superior team to the Giants and probably 31 other teams in the league right now. They’re an absolute juggernaut on offense, and with a surprising running game they’re essentially un-defendable. The Colts also reminded everyone why they’re so good at protecting leads with the dominant play of defensive ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. The Giants seemed to realize they were out-matched halfway through the Colts’ first drive. After that, offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride panicked and the rest of the offense began thinking about what they’d do after the game. The defense was gashed also, but to be fair, there aren’t many teams that can contain the Colts.